Measured Easing Resumes

If deflation persists and credit data remain weak, the PBOC may resume modest easing with a 10 to 20 basis point LPR cut or another reserve-requirement-ratio reduction. This would signal renewed support, though policymakers are likely to avoid a large credit impulse unless labor-market or property stress worsens.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.