Possible scenario
Threats Stay Contained
38% Chance
The Houthi statement is followed by more attempted launches and propaganda, but Saudi air defenses limit operational damage. Markets treat the headline as a continuation of an already visible risk rather than a fresh systemic oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
- XOM+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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