Possible scenario
Major Oil Strike
27% Chance
Houthis translate the threat into a more successful strike on Saudi oil infrastructure, creating a visible but likely temporary supply disruption. The closest market precedent is the 2019 Abqaiq attack, though this scenario assumes a smaller and more quickly contained outage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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