Possible scenario
Full Conquest Ordered
28% Chance
Ben-Gvir's pressure combines with coalition arithmetic and Netanyahu's prior commitment to take over Gaza, resulting in a decision to seize the remaining territory. Israel frames the order as necessary to dismantle Hamas and establish long-term security control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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