Possible scenario
Open Model Adoption
40% Chance
Step 5's open weights are released on Oct. 15 with usable tooling, permissive licensing, and competitive benchmark results. Chinese developers and global open-source teams rapidly test it as a cheaper alternative to proprietary APIs and as a direct rival to Kimi K3, Qwen, and DeepSeek models.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.6%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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