Possible scenario
Sustained Bridge Campaign
42% Chance
Russia continues using Banderol and modified Iskander-M missiles to pressure Kyiv's bridge network, building on attacks against Pivdennyi and Northern Bridge. The most likely near-term path is continued interdiction rather than a decisive military breakthrough, as Ukraine combines emergency repairs with Patriot and other air-defense coverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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