Possible scenario
Operational Pause Emerges
18% Chance
Russia may pause the bridge campaign to assess damage, conserve scarce modified missiles, or shift launch assets after Ukrainian countermeasures. This would not end the war, but it would reduce the immediate market significance of the Kyiv bridge attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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