Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
26% Chance
Ukraine and its partners respond by accelerating interceptor deliveries, increasing surveillance, and targeting Russian launch chains. This scenario is plausible because the attack follows Ukraine's recent effort to secure Patriot interceptors and Russia's deployment of modified missiles designed to stress those defenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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