Possible scenario
Trump Delays Decision
30% Chance
Trump uses Zelenskyy's request as leverage but avoids immediate sanctions while seeking talks with Beijing and Moscow. This outcome fits Trump's preference for public threats followed by negotiation, especially where China exposure could affect U.S. markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.