Possible scenario
Targeted U.S. Sanctions
38% Chance
The most likely policy response is a targeted U.S. sanctions package against Russian procurement networks and Chinese satellite-linked entities accused of supporting Russian battlefield communications. Trump can satisfy Zelenskyy's request without imposing a broad China-wide technology embargo.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Telecommunications -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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