Possible scenario
Allies Move First
18% Chance
If the White House hesitates, Congress and European allies may try to shape the response themselves. This would keep pressure on Moscow and Beijing while limiting the chance of a sudden Trump-Xi rupture.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- VSAT+2.9%
- IRDM+1.3%
- SPCX-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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