Possible scenario
Madrid Rabat Deal
21% Chance
Spain and Morocco quietly move to prevent another Ceuta influx after weeks of blame over border control. Madrid avoids reversing its support for Morocco's Western Sahara autonomy plan, while Rabat signals cooperation on policing and returns.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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