Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence Expansion
42% Chance
The Pentagon's expanded nuclear options become part of a broader deterrence package rather than an immediate operational crisis. The White House frames the move as a response to China's arsenal growth, Russia's New START suspension, and North Korea's advancing missile capabilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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