Possible scenario
Domestic Constraints Emerge
18% Chance
The policy shift becomes a domestic governance debate over presidential authority, escalation control, and cost. The practical effect is more reporting and budget scrutiny rather than cancellation of U.S. nuclear modernization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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