Possible scenario
Arms Race Intensifies
26% Chance
Beijing and Moscow treat the expanded U.S. menu of nuclear options as proof of a more flexible first-use posture. Formal arms-control progress remains limited, and allies press Washington for more visible deterrence commitments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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