Possible scenario
ETF-led upside
42% Chance
The most likely path is a continued but orderly risk-on move as softer inflation reduces Fed tightening fears and spot Bitcoin ETFs keep attracting allocations. The halving-era supply constraint reinforces the price response, but positioning is already extended after the move back to $85,000.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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