Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise Emerges
25% Chance
A narrower version gains discussion as lawmakers try to address AI displacement without appearing anti-innovation. The compromise focuses on large data centers, frontier-model operators, or federal AI procurement rather than a broad AI profits tax.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.7%
- AMZN-0.6%
- ORCL-0.5%
- -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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