Possible scenario
Gulf Risk Returns
22% Chance
A renewed security shock around Hormuz or the wider Gulf would turn the freight story back into a geopolitical oil-supply story. The market reaction would be larger than a normal shipping-rate move, lifting crude, tanker equities, and volatility while hurting refiners exposed to imported barrels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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