Freight Squeeze Persists

The most likely path is that Asia-bound US crude flows remain elevated because buyers are still diversifying away from Middle East supply after the September Hormuz shock. Limited available VLCC tonnage keeps spot charter costs near records, but the effect is concentrated in tanker equities and crude differentials rather than broad markets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.