Possible scenario
Talks Drift On
25% Chance
The amended plan remains alive but negotiators fail to agree on inspection rights, drone seizures, and which Iranian-linked terminals qualify for relief. This outcome preserves the diplomatic track while extending uncertainty around Hormuz flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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