Possible scenario
Phased Access Deal
45% Chance
Iran, the United States, Oman, Qatar, and UN intermediaries converge on a narrow, reversible arrangement: limited commercial access through Hormuz in exchange for a partial easing of the U.S. port blockade. This is the most likely path because both Washington and Tehran gain a face-saving off-ramp without resolving the broader conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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