Possible scenario
Negotiations Break Down
20% Chance
The mediation effort fails over verification, seized U.S. drones, and Iran’s demand for broader sanctions relief. The blockade remains in place or tightens, raising the probability of further ship seizures or naval incidents.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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