Possible scenario
Protests Are Contained
35% Chance
Catalan and national officials move quickly to reduce street tension after the clashes, using negotiations with tenant groups and police restraint to prevent a wider escalation. The rejected renter law remains unresolved, but the immediate political damage is limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.