Possible scenario
Election Risk Rises
20% Chance
The housing defeat becomes a broader test of the government's ability to govern, especially if Junts maintains opposition and street protests keep the issue in the headlines. Snap election risk rises, pressuring Spanish-exposed financials and real estate names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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