Possible scenario
Trade Truce Holds
25% Chance
Trump's decision becomes a durable policy pause rather than a temporary gesture. US refiners keep access to European buyers, while Europe accepts reserve drawdowns as the price of avoiding American export controls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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