Possible scenario
Supply Shock Returns
20% Chance
The reserve release is overtaken by new physical supply problems, such as refinery outages or geopolitical disruptions to crude and product flows. Markets again price a tighter diesel balance, increasing pressure on transport, industrial, and consumer-facing sectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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