Possible scenario
Democratic Coalition Holds
38% Chance
Obama’s endorsement helps Abdul El-Sayed contain the damage from his prior criticism and signals to wavering Democrats that defeating Mike Rogers matters more than old intraparty fights. The campaign keeps progressive energy while reassuring establishment donors, unions, and suburban elected officials.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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