Possible scenario
Vaca Muerta Accelerates
45% Chance
TotalEnergies proceeds with the $10 billion commitment largely on schedule, validating Argentina's post-2023 liberalization and Vaca Muerta's export potential. The investment crowds in partners, service companies, and midstream capacity, while the market treats the deal as a durable signal that Milei's energy opening is working.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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