Possible scenario
Tanker Supercycle Extends
25% Chance
Hormuz remains blocked or only intermittently usable, while Red Sea avoidance continues to absorb tanker capacity. The shortage supports very high charter rates and makes Volare a proxy for crisis-era freight earnings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.