Possible scenario
Proxy Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran chooses a calibrated response through aligned militias rather than direct missile fire at Israel. This allows Tehran to preserve deterrence while limiting the chance of a major U.S. or Israeli counterstrike.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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