Possible scenario
Direct Escalation
20% Chance
The deception drill proves to be part of a broader operational campaign or is misread by Tehran as preparation for attack. A direct Israeli-Iranian exchange would be a material escalation from posturing to kinetic action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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