Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Israel uses the simulated Iraq-based attack profile as psychological pressure rather than the prelude to an immediate strike. Iran denounces the maneuver but avoids a direct military response while intelligence and air-defense units remain on alert.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- LMT-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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