Possible scenario
Congress Revives Subsidies
22% Chance
The refund checks become a bridge to a bipartisan or narrow partisan deal restoring part of the enhanced ACA subsidies. Exchange-focused insurers benefit most if the policy reduces premium shock and improves the risk pool.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- OSCR+5.2%
- CNC+4.1%
- MOH+2.6%
- ELV+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.