Possible scenario
Sanctions Net Tightens
38% Chance
The U.S., EU and UK treat the Arctic voyage as evidence that Russia is adapting its shadow logistics network beyond crude oil into fuel additives. Enforcement focuses on the sanctioned vessel, brokers, port service providers and Chinese intermediaries rather than a full break with Beijing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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