Possible scenario
Arctic Route Disrupted
18% Chance
The rare Arctic voyage proves operationally fragile because of weather, insurance limits and port-service restrictions. Even without a major accident, delays make the route less reliable for Russian refinery inputs.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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