Possible scenario
Hybrid Attacks Intensify
17% Chance
Russia avoids direct military contact with NATO troops but increases cyberattacks, GPS interference, disinformation, and sabotage attempts around the Baltic region. Estonia is a plausible target given its proximity to Russia and its role as a digital-government pioneer.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.