Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The additional U.S. troops reinforce Estonia and signal allied resolve without triggering a major Russian military response. Moscow denounces the deployment but avoids crossing NATO airspace or territory, making this the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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