Possible scenario
Airspace Brinkmanship Persists
28% Chance
Russian aircraft continue operating aggressively near Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland, forcing NATO to scramble aircraft more often. Both sides avoid live fire, but the risk of miscalculation remains elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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