Possible scenario
Voluntary Research Slowdown
32% Chance
The most likely near-term institutional response is a limited, voluntary slowdown rather than a legal halt. OpenAI and peer labs try to preserve legitimacy with mathematicians by adding review boards, provenance disclosures, and temporary publication controls.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.5%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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