Possible scenario
Secondary Crisis Emerges
20% Chance
Further rainfall, unstable slopes, damaged roads, and contaminated water produce a second phase of humanitarian risk after the initial disaster. Casualties do not necessarily rise at the same pace, but displacement, disease risk, and logistics costs worsen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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