Possible scenario
Orderly Iraqi Handover
45% Chance
Iraq’s security forces and counterterrorism units absorb the final U.S. base closures without an immediate breakdown. Because the withdrawal followed a long-announced timetable, markets treat the headline as confirmation rather than a new geopolitical shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- AMTM-0.7%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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