Possible scenario
Militias Gain Leverage
20% Chance
The end of the U.S. military presence gives Iran-aligned Iraqi factions more room to shape security decisions, budget allocations, and pressure on the Kurdistan Region. This is a political-security risk rather than an immediate nationwide breakdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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