Possible scenario
ISIS Tests Baghdad
25% Chance
ISIS remnants try to exploit the political symbolism of the U.S. withdrawal by increasing attacks in disputed or sparsely governed areas. Iraq is unlikely to return to a 2014-style collapse, but a visible uptick in violence would challenge Trump’s victory framing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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