Possible scenario
Localized Disruption Spreads
20% Chance
Most rallies remain peaceful, but confrontations between protesters, counterprotesters, and armed political activists disrupt voting in a handful of large metro areas. The disruptions are not systemic, yet they raise uncertainty about turnout, certification fights, and election security costs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.2%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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