Possible scenario
GOP Reaches Parity
38% Chance
Republicans continue converting Trump's mail-vote push into returned ballots, moving from a 0.1-point deficit to effective parity or a small lead. This is the most likely path because the RNC and Arizona GOP have spent two cycles normalizing early voting among Trump-leaning voters.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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