Possible scenario
U.S. Convoy Containment
35% Chance
Washington and Gulf partners respond with armed convoy lanes, minesweeping patrols, and limited rules-of-engagement changes rather than a broad air campaign. This is the most likely path because the U.S., Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar all have strong incentives to keep shipping moving while avoiding a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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