Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
30% Chance
Iran keeps up missile, drone, and fast-boat attacks at a pace high enough to make commercial transit uneconomic for many shipowners. The strait does not fully close, but insurance withdrawal and rerouting decisions sharply reduce effective oil and LNG flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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