Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and the UN push through a narrow maritime de-escalation arrangement tied to humanitarian or sanctions-channel talks. Tehran does not concede strategically, but it accepts a pause to avoid direct U.S. strikes and to test possible concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
- Consumer Services +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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