Possible scenario
Managed Fund Wind-Down
45% Chance
The Cevdet Yilmaz-led coordination board, the Capital Markets Board of Turkey and Borsa Istanbul contain the damage by sequencing liquidations and limiting disorderly block sales. This is the most likely path because Ankara has already centralized the response and has strong incentives to prevent a confidence shock before it reaches banks and households.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.