Possible scenario
Credit Transmission Risk
15% Chance
The scandal begins to affect margin lending, bank collateral and broker funding lines rather than remaining a simple equity-market liquidation. This lower-probability scenario would matter more for global risk appetite because Turkish banks and foreign lenders have identifiable balance-sheet exposure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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